United3dArtists Archive

Is it just me or is the 3d market shrinking....
Havent spent a cent in the last 16 months on anything 3d...
A lot of tools and pieces of software are orphaned like Silo.....
Is there anything new (software)out there worthwhile looking at ........any new technology.....?
To put it in one word..... yawn !
Peter

Although I don't own it, ZBrush is very exciting with every (free) update they put out. It blows me away with the things they do.
Most everything is moving to smaller devices and the "Cloud". Thank goodness the Professionals in the 3D field still need their tools. Your right
the field is shrinking and becoming very expensive or free.

Today Tablet for Cloud have not enought power for real 3d tools. Programmers work for apps with a price of 2-3 dollars. Difficult to create a new 3d market really useful.
Only professionals softwares can survive on Workstation.
Maybe in a few years a new 3d market will born. Because we will have augmented reality and 3d printing for all.

It`s not shrinking. But the market is sorted, and all needed tools available. The big boys have taken over. Completely new 3D software is rare nowadays.

http://www.redsharknews.com/post/item/9 ... ting-times"

trueBlue wrote:http://www.redsharknews.com/post/item/9 ... ting-times

Trueblue good that you showed us this link because thats exactly were I see movement in still photography and
in movies and hardware...... but in 3d I see not so much movement..... there are exceptions like zbrush and a few others
but I see a lot of stagnation in the mid to lower segment of the market.. basically exactly where Truespace is or was...
I´m talking about the 500 $ plus minus segment..
Is the demand so weak ?
Peter

I don't agree with the technology side of things at all - the rise of new 3d tools using GPU rendering and dynamic mesh tessellation (i.e Sculptris) has been an awesome thing to witness.

As for the degradation of the market, I really think this process started many years ago, not recently, and is partly down to the failings of the developers to listen to their customers, let alone talk to them about what they need.

I also think the economy is a factor. I think "austerity" is a word we will all be sick of by the time this latest downturn is over. I noticed Modo recently merged with another company, a bit disturbing considering I always thought of Luxology as a 3d company with it's head screwed on far more than most.

On the plus side, I've never had so many cool 3d apps at my disposal that I got for nothing or were very cheap. Sculptris, Octane, Messiah, Reference Image and Marmoset Toolbag are all noteworthy. You can now get the Daz suite for free too at the moment (not Carrara). I would also count Blender on features alone, but I just can't bring myself to like it.

I've also lost count of the number innovative, cool 2d apps I have discovered over the past few years (Drawplus, Artrage Studio, Photoline, Xara, Dogwaffle). Maybe things have stagnated, but I've never had so many cool, time-wasting opportunities at my disposal.......

IMHO there has been a decline in revenue for the major players simply because the largest consumption group is the hobbyist/enthusiast. Most of these folks have added extensively to their software inventory based on the big push for new customers we saw with the storm of cover CD freebies.

The consumption bubble is coming from the learning curve needed to become reasonably skilled in all the new goodies as well as the economic burden of upgrading regularly. You can see the software houses trying to encourage the upgrades with new subscription services and other deferred payment schemes.

I saw the same bubble with business software stemming from Y2K. By December of 1999 every Fortune 500 company and every small business that wanted to keep their insurance had upgraded their software to the current version and didn't need an upgrade for most software for at least 18 months.

Other than the overall industry shifts shown in the article referenced by Trueblue I strongly believe that Windows 8 is going to push a lot of players to cross platform applications. A lot of hobbyist cg artists I know are getting ready to leave the Windows platform and are therefore moving to Blender. They have already abandoned MS office for Libre and other open source tools.

Overall consumer confidence is still very shaky so I would expect the hobbyists to come back to the market when there is a clear signal that the overall economy has recovered.

It might just be you.
Press C, then hold both mouse buttons and drag up.

Shrinking market?

Maybe I'm gonna contribute here...

I've been following the progress of The Foundry's software Mari, a relatively new software at a kinda decent price for what it is, one of the most powerful texture painting software I've ever seen! It's new, and has been successful, being used in Avatar, Battleship among other projects out there.

Personally, I think the monopoly of full featured authoring packages are due to be tied to the tried and true companies like Autodesk, with competition based on free software like Blender, and other competitors like Cinema4D or Modo 601. These companies have the monopoly in that market within the industry, and there will not be much competition, only development of what is already there (merging of Autodesk software and code, merging of companies and their code, development of current code, etc).

But I do see a large development in specialized software, from small things like SMAK to large specialized software like Mari among others. I think in the industry, specialization of software for specific tasks is in high demand, because as the industry grows, so do specializations, and the people who do such tasks. Programs will be and need to be developed for this workforce, and with Mari as an example, or Vue, FumeFX, etc, they have been very well received, with other specialized software still strong.
Other examples are specialized render engines are growing and sprouting still (octane is one), animation specific tools also are plodding a long and getting stronger, (like Messiah), and other specialized 3D engines for games are growing rapidly to start accommodating new areas in the industry, not to mention Vue which is growing exponentially also, DAZ and Bryce, Terragen, etc, being a somewhat specialized software also.

But lower-end products based on being full packages on the current workstation just can't play with the current competition of tried and true software packages like that of Autodesk, and even if they were free, it would be hard to compete with Blender!.. unless, like someone mentioned above, Windows 8 opens doors to portable touch friendly 3D authoring software, like that of our friend who's making a touch friendly 3D software right at the moment for windows 8! (Can't wait for the alpha/beta release!!!) I think apps for portable devices for outlets to making augmented reality, 3D printing and the like is lacking, and will sprout the more people see power in portable devices today, and also the ease and use of 3D modelling/rendering of the future.

Little big planet, the game, I find to be a perfect example of WYSIWYG game and 3D development platform that appealed to everyone, on many platforms. People exponentially could express themselves in a platform made for them to make things, even Minecraft. Yes, they are games, but their demand is high and succesful, kinda like Lego which still is strong today. Future 3D authoring software will probably either specialize and cater to specific work forces in the industry, or be some beefed up, evolved software already available on the market at the moment, or a new and easy WYSIWYG software for the general public, even children, to build, render and create 3D content on any device.

My thoughts..

Some interesting points made in this thread, however I'm very skeptical about droves of anybody using Linux as their main platform no matter how bad W8 is.

I've been using the Windows 8 Beta. I really like it. It boots really fast.
I have the classic desktop, not the 'finger panel thing' whatever you call it, for a tablet.
On boot you have that panel thing but you can click Desktop. That part takes a little
getting accustomed to, but once your desktop is up you're pretty much good to go.

I try to keep my 3D Software products out of the dryer, so it doesn't shrink.

Drip-dry seems to work the best.

rinse-repeat

Well I went to Staples yesterday and picked up a copy of Windows 8 Pro for:

69.99 Staples price
-$14.00 (20% off coupon)
- $10.00 gift card

total: $49.

I went the windows 8 route because it's cheaper than Windows 7 heh. It does boot faster.
No problems with blender, truespace, sculptris, firefox.
Oddly, Internet Explorer doesn't work too well with facebook (the windows 8 beta that is). Pictures show up behind all the text which is
annoying. No prob! I use Firefox then.

froo wrote:Well I went to Staples yesterday and picked up a copy of Windows 8 Pro for:

69.99 Staples price
-$14.00 (20% off coupon)
- $10.00 gift card

total: $49.

I went the windows 8 route because it's cheaper than Windows 7 heh. It does boot faster.
No problems with blender, truespace, sculptris, firefox.
Oddly, Internet Explorer doesn't work too well with facebook (the windows 8 beta that is). Pictures show up behind all the text which is
annoying. No prob! I use Firefox then.

A very good deal you made my friend.

I've given up on Internet Explorer. It is slow to load, stutters on pages and simply is too cumbersome to make it worthwhile to use.

I use Google Chrome now and am happy with its speed and options.

Cool James.
I downloaded Firefox again; all my old stuff was kept.
Except, oddly, firefox. Hmmmmmmmmm. Could it be, that Microsoft didn't want firefox readily available at my fingertips, to surf
the web instead of Internet Exploder? NAAAHH! That's impossible!